International Conference on Monte Carlo techniques
Closing conference of thematic cycle

Paris July 5-8th 2016 
Campus les cordeliers
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Stochastic Kriging for Bermudan Option Pricing
Michael Ludkovski  1@  
1 : UC Santa Barbara  (UCSB)  -  Website

We investigate three new strategies for the numerical solution of optimal stopping problems within the Regression Monte Carlo (RMC) framework of Longstaff and Schwartz. First, we propose the use of stochastic kriging (Gaussian process) meta-models for fitting the continuation value. Kriging offers a flexible, nonparametric regression approach that quantifies approximation quality. Second, we connect the choice of stochastic grids used in RMC to the Design of Experiments paradigm. We examine space-filling and adaptive experimental designs; we also investigate the use of batching with replicated simulations at design sites to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. Third, we explore classification models for directly approximating the exercise region. Numerical case studies for valuing Bermudan Puts and Max-Calls under a variety of asset dynamics illustrate that our methods offer significant reduction in simulation budgets over existing approaches.



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